A crushing but meaningless blow.

29 September 2008

The Bailout Is Dead

Such high drama on Capitol Hill these days. It's riveting.

A few thoughts...

The Paulson plan deserved to be killed for a number of reasons, but the most important is that it went looking for a solution in the wrong place, that is the buying up of troubled Wall St assets. Pual Krugman, Brad DeLong, Nouriel Roubini, and others have argued convincingly that the best way to fix the problem is a recapitalization of failing banks, not simply taking their junk off their hands. This is how Sweden avoided calamity in the early 90s, so there is precedent as well. The Paulson plan would amount to suturing someone's leg when their head has a hole in it.

The politics of the matter are downright ugly. The House Republicans killed this bill, and the reasons seem to vary wildly, from simple cover-your-ass mentality in an election year to actual principled opposition to funding this rescue with taxpayer money. But the failure on both ends lies with the GOP, from their President and Congress who allowed this mes to happen, to the partisan posturing that resulted in the No vote.

But, Democrats should not be so eager to pass something just to be seen as proactive, especially when the major tenets of the bill are and always have been Republican-authored. Again, some Democrats voted Nay on principle, some on political considerations. But the key is to get sensible, take a deep breath, and get to the bottom of it, thereby crafting a plan that addresses the problem properly, protects the taxpayer, and installs a frameork for prevention of future disaster.

28 September 2008

James Fallows Throws Down

Check it.

For kicks, just try and parse this nonsense from Sarah Palin during her Katie Couric interview:

Couric: Why isn't it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? Allow them to spend more, and put more money into the economy, instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

Palin: That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, we're ill about this position that we have been put in. Where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy. Um, helping, oh, it's got to be about job creation, too. Shoring up our economy, and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions, and tax relief for Americans, and trade -- we have got to see trade as opportunity, not as, uh, competitive, um, scary thing, but one in five jobs created in the trade sector today. We've got to look at that as more opportunity. All of those things under the umbrella of job creation.

It's just sad. When you can't handle questioning from Katie fucking Couric, you know you're pathetic.

Remember - Palin has undoubtedly been briefed about what will be asked of her. She's been sequestered away and tutored and trained and told what to expect. And she still fails. I think she's actually worse than George W. Bush.

27 September 2008

There's Always Something Beneath The Surface

The Washington Post offers a fascinating glimpse into the political wrangling over the financial bailout plan. Remember that this is the backdrop for Friday's presidential debate, the one McCain said he wouldn't do if there wasn't a deal, but which went ahead anyway after McCain's very presence in the negotiations ruined the deal.

As more and more leaks out about McCain's true character, it's clear that he is just a nasty bastard. His not looking at Barack last night was just the surface.

21 September 2008

Kill Them With Facts

Random tidbits from a few weeks sleuthing....

ONE:
Sarah Palin, in her Charlie Gibson interview, proposed drilling for oil in the ANWR nature reserve. She claimed that oil reserves occupy only 2,000 sq mi of a 20,000 sq mi habitat. This is correct. But the implication is that drilling for oil in Alaska will produce enough fuel to ease American dependence on foreign oil. This is false. The US consumes 20 million barrels of oil a day. 12 million barrels a day come from imports. The federal government's own estimates state that ANWR drilling would not reach peak production until 2025, and then the most it could provide would be 80 thousand barrels a day. That equates to %.04 of US daily oil consumption.

It is simple fact that oil reserves on this planet will one day run out. The Palin/McCain ticket is outright in favor of squeezing the last drops of black gold from the earth, consequences be damned, over developing sustainable energy to deal with the inevitable.

TWO:
US spending on health care in 2007 reached $2.3 trillion. That's %16 of GDP. Barack Obama's health care proposal has estimated costs of $50 to $65 billion per year. The Fed bailout of Bear Sterns in May cost $29 billion. The seizing of IndyMac bank cost $8.9 billion. The takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has a $100 billion price tag. AIG's rescue cost $85 billion. The newest proposal by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asks for $700 billion.

That adds up to just under $840 billion.

It's more illustrative to write it out: 840,000,000,000

Many, many people claim universal health care would be too expensive. In 6 months the Treasury has propped up Wall St with 12 times more capital than the Obama health care plan would cost for one year.

The priorities of the federal government could not be clearer.

Class Warfare

This is the best summation of the current administration brinksmanship and what it means about US capitalism and power that I have yet read.

For what it's worth, I sent emails to both NY Senators (I never do that shit) imploring them to deny the bailout proposal passage.

Forget the November election. This is the turning point for the nation's future.

20 September 2008

Scottish Guitar Army

I've seen Mogwai a half-dozen times and Thursday night at Terminal 5 was definitely the best show I've seen them put on. How can it not be when the setlist includes Like Herod, New Paths To Helicon, AND Mogwai Fear Satan? From my position in the second balcony, the band seemed to be enjoying themselves, swigging beer and making faces at each other. Somehow that makes their titanic noise all the more bracing, seeing such unexceptional dudes create such a mind-blowing ruckus.

A Picture Needs A Frame

Usually the comments left on political blogs are nonsense, but on Atrios tonight, i saw someone spin the new Treasury bailout plan as the "sale of America," and I think that's a very useful frame Barack Obama might want to start using right away.

Also, from the bailout proposal text:

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

That's pretty fucking bold.

Ok, One More For Today

For his entire presidency, George W. Bush has tried to avoid the fate of his father, brought low by a feeble economy. (NY Times)

This is too much. How exactly has he "tried?" By doing nothing?

This sounds like the desperate opening sentence (you know, the thesis, as they say in grammar school) of a college paper written by a student who has no idea what he's talking about.

The Pre-Eminent Critic of Treasury Dept. Policy

A fourth, smaller group of lawmakers was highly critical and in some cases adamantly opposed to the plan. That group included including Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, and Senator Bernard Sanders, independent of Vermont.

“The free market for all intents and purposes is dead in America,” Mr. Bunning declared on Friday. “The action proposed today by the Treasury Department will take away the free market and institute socialism in America. The American taxpayer has been misled throughout this economic crisis. The government on all fronts has failed the American people miserably.”
(NY Times)

It's funny how he can be so wrong and so right all at the same time. Yes, the government has failed the people, but not in the way being suggested. Years of de-regulation and enacting policies benificial to Wall St but detrimental to the public, that's the failure. And there never was a true "free market" in America.

Thirty years of treating the government as a mere backup plan for insanely risky financial activities, that's the problem - and Democrats and Republicans are to blame. The millionaires need to reap what they've sown, not get a free pass on the taxpayer's dime.

And, for the record:

From Baseball-reference.com:

Jim Bunning

Yrs W L ERA SO
17 224 184 3.27 2,855

Say What You Mean

Sec. 3. Considerations.

In exercising the authorities granted in this Act, the Secretary shall take into consideration means for--

(1) providing stability or preventing disruption to the financial markets or banking system; and

(2) protecting the taxpayer.
(Actual text from the proposed financial bailout plan)

I would suggest that after $85B for AIG and $700B for basically whatever, protecting the taxpayer should be the first priority.

15 September 2008

House of Cards

Bear Stern collapsed six months ago. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the federal government last week. Just this weekend Lehman asked the Fed for backup and was refused, now they are moving towards liquidation. Merril Lynch sold itself off. AIG, after refusing a private buy-out, is also asking for Fed assistance, but has been turned down as well.

Drip drip drip.

Seems like it's all falling apart, doesn't it?

And here we are talking about lipstick on a pig.

07 September 2008

"S&P slashes Fannie, Freddie preferred stock to junk"

The above is a Reuters headline about the Treasury Dept bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, but it reads better as a crime blotter headline. Picture the dysfuctional Standard Home Loan family finally imploding as newly minted gang-member "S&P" attacks his sister Fannie with a blade and brother Freddie blots out the world shooting up junk bonds in the corner.

Now I'm not very good with economics, but as I understand this situation, it's mostly a Band-Aid for a gunshot wound. Economists argue the mathematics of the Treasury's capital infusion and debate the efficacy of preffered stock to common stock, but the larger issue is the continuing exposure of the US economic system as a house of cards. Fannie and Freddie are, as Government Supported Enterprises, inherently risky propositions, operating within a tricky netherworld between the private and public sectors. And they also happen to support the entirety of the US housing market. It's too often overlooked, in accounts that I read, that this impacts the ability of citizens to own a home - that's a home, a place to rest your head, give you shelter from the storm, the bedrock of civilized society. Also overlooked is the fact that most Americans can't afford to buy a home. The elimination of Freddie/Fannie stock dividends affects rich people and only rich people, but to read the newspapers, this is the most important aspect of the current crisis, not the fact that more and more people are losing their homes and many others are unable to buy homes at all.

It is stated quite clearly in the Fannie/Freddie charters that their investments are not explicitly backed by the Treasury, but decades of promises to foreign lenders by institutions both public and private have forced the Treasury's hand into a de facto backing of these loans. The situation today is the result of many years of foolish behavior that made the current bailout "inevitable", because it certainly isn't feasible to default on millions of dollars to foreign interests. But how long can the high-wire act continue? Shuffling debts from place to place does nothing to enact a long-term solution.

But long-term solutions are politically difficult, as they would require a serious rethinking and painful reconfiguration of the American system of corporate socialism. Most people seem content to shut their eyes and hope the problem disappears. It most certainly will not. It doesn't take an Economics PhD to see that.

I expect the bailout will result in some short-term benefit, followed by the predictable rosy-viewed editorializing, all of which will be poltically expedient to someone. But the true effects won't be apparent for some time, and their likely to get worse and worse the longer an actual solution is avoided. Which could leave the next President in an impossible position as the caretaker of the worst economic collapse since the Depression.

04 September 2008

Addendum

This is just too rich.

During her remarks, one of the younger of Ms. Palin’s children was captured on television cameras holding the four-and-a-half month baby, Trig, and stroking his head. (NY Times)

The passive voice strikes again. "Was captured on television cameras" implies a fortuitous twist of fate, rather than a carefully stage-managed spectacle. They were passing that baby around like the Stanley Cup starting with Guliani's speech. Unbelievably crass. Also, it's worth asking who brings their four-month-old to a big noisy political rally? And for the record, she was not just "stroking his head," she was flattening his hair with her spit-covered fingers. That little girl was way cute but it was a bizarre image. You could even see here dredging up the saliva in her mouth.

I feel really bad for that kid.

Sarah Palin's Speech

Pretty bad all told. And what bizarre television coverage on ABC. First all the cut-aways to Cindy McCain during Rudy Guliani's truly odiuos "speech." And why was she holding the little Down's Syndrome baby? And why was the baby even there? And how uncomfortable did Bristol and her baby-daddy look? I try to keep these blogs in proper English but tonight it's just too much. I should know better than to listen to Republicans speak.

A quick dissection:

1. Taking about fifteen minutes to introduce every member of your family may be a good way to address a Tupperware or Avon meeting, but Ms. Palin you are running for Vice President of the United States. It also kind of ruins the whole "family is off limits" meme your running mate has been floating all day. To Democrats I say, fire away!

2. She doesn't exactly exude charisma, and her overall tone was snide and patronizing. Not as bad as Guliani but it seems a serious misstep to let Palin follow in his attack-dog style, especially after his speech ran so long. They talk about Obama as if he just finished his undergraduate, which is especially rich coming from the "Commander-in-Chief of the Alaskan National Guard," who only got a passport last year.

3. The essential thrust of the speech was, "John McCain is awesome, we're going to shake up Washington, Obama is a tax-and-spend liberal, I love my family and it's really large, p.s. John McCain is awesome."
The tax-and-spend/big government thing is like regressing to 1988, not to mention the current administration's idea of fiscal responsibility amounts to running a $300 trillion deficit. For the family bit, see above (plus, she really said her husband races "snow machines"?!). And finally, it's also rather bold to run on a platform of "shaking up Washington" with a six-term member of Congress under the banner of the party that has been in power for 30 of the last 38 years.
Also, John McCain is not awesome. John McCain is very boring.

4. Lastly - predictably, nauseatingly, the press is eating it up. It would be quaint to hear George Stephanopoulous say "she did really well for a first time in front of so many people," if it didn't speak to a press corp so willing to lower the bar. The NY Times says she "electrified" the party faithful. I saw many confused, bored, even sullen faces in the crowd. The speech was stultifying, full of tired talking points and just plain nonsense. I'm biased of course, but I actually feared she would give a great speech. She did not. But what I should have realized is that when the media lauded her speaking abilities beforehand, they were simply writing the preamble to the plaudits they would lavish on her afterward, regardless of her actual performance.

I have a feeling that real people aren't buying it, but it's so hard to tell, being in New York. Biden should eat her alive in the debates, but we'll see if anyone notices.

By the way, the first step is admitting you have a problem - I am an election addict.

02 September 2008

When Pulling Out Is Not An Option

From the NY Times, regarding Sarah Palin's daughter:

At a reception for educators at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Sandra Ross, a special-needs high school teacher from Orlando, Fla, said, “She’s going to be a good role model for the country.” Of Bristol’s pregnancy, Ms. Ross added, “Everybody makes mistakes.”

"Everybody makes mistakes." True. But one wonders what exactly the "mistake" was in this instant. Was it having sex before marriage or having sex without protection? Of course, ostensibly, using birth control is verboten in the Republican world view, which also frowns upon sex before marriage, so really the only applicable "mistake" is in not following an "abstinence-only" approach.

During the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial campaign, Sarah Palin responded thusly to a survey question posed to her:

Will you support efforts to raise or lower the mandatory age of education? Why or why not?
SP: No, again, parents know better than government what is best for their children.

Sarah Palin as a parent and member of government believes that "abstinence-only" is the only appropriate form of sex education. Assuming that Sarah Palin ever talked to her 17-year-old daughter about sex, we must assume that she preached "abstinence-only." It apparently did not work with her daughter. It's fair to wonder then how she can support it as national policy.

(This is all so much faux naif pondering. It's well-documented that preaching abstinence does not work at all, and that teenagers have sex at a pretty much constant rate, regardless of the type of sex-ed they receive. I'd be willing to bet that kids have fucked at the same rate all throughout human history, but that's another story...)

The right-wing will whine and claim that it's unfair to bring these issues up, but she's their choice for vice-president, it's their policies she supposedly espouses, and it's eminently fair to judge them against reality. And anyway, this is national politics, this is hardball, major leagues, this is the Presidential Election - everyone knows that every single speck of dirt about a candidate is going to be dredged up and rehashed in spectacular fashion.

It's infuriating to see Republicans herald a female candidate and then demand she be treated with kid's gloves. Ask Hillary Clinton how gently she was ever treated by the right. I feel bad for the daughter, but her mother advocates policies that simply don't work, and she must be upbraided for it.